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SOME PREDICTIONS FROM GAIA
Whether Gaia is a true picture of the world may
be less important than its ability to stimulate the right questions
about planetary chemistry, and so open up fertile new areas of research.
Its remarkable track record in predicting self-regulatory interactions
of biota and the environment is illustrated in the table below,
In each case, a question suggested by Gaia theory led to a prediction
of a possible link, and subsequent research has either confirmed
this prediction as correct, or opened further areas of interest.
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PREDICTION AND YEAR |
TEST AND RESULT |
That Mars was lifeless from atmospheric
evidence
1968 |
Viking Mission 1977
Strong confirmation |
That organisms would make compounds
that can transfer essential elements from the oceans to the land surfaces
1971 |
Dimethyl sulphide and methyl iodide both found
1973 |
That climate may be regulated by the
control of carbon dioxide through biologically enhanced rock weathering
1981 |
Microorganisms greatly increase rock weathering
1989 |
That climate regulation via cloud
density control is linked to algal sulphur gas emissions 1987 |
Still under test; evidence that oceanic cloud
cover geographically matches algal distribution 1990 |
That oxygen has stayed at 21 ±
5% for past 200 million years 1973 |
Still under test |
That Archean atmospheric chemistry
was dominated by methane 1988 |
Still under test |
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